Article Abstract

Liver cancer incidence and mortality in China: Temporal trends and projections to 2030

Authors: Rongshou Zheng, Chunfeng Qu, Siwei Zhang, Hongmei Zeng, Kexin Sun, Xiuying Gu, Changfa Xia, Zhixun Yang, He Li, Wenqiang Wei, Wanqing Chen, Jie He


Objective: Liver cancer is one of the most common cancers and major cause of cancer deaths in China, which accounts for over 50% of new cases and deaths worldwide. The systematic liver cancer statistics including of projection through 2030 could provide valuable information for prevention and control strategies in China, and experience for other countries.
Methods: The burden of liver cancer in China in 2014 was estimated using 339 cancer registries’ data selected from Chinese National Cancer Center (NCC). Incident cases of 22 cancer registries were applied for temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. The burden of liver cancer through 2030 was projected using age-period-cohort model.
Results: About 364,800 new cases of liver cancer (268,900 males and 95,900 females) occurred in China, and about 318,800 liver cancer deaths (233,500 males and 85,300 females) in 2014. Western regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates. Incidence and mortality rates decreased by about 2.3% and 2.6% per year during the period of 2000−2014, respectively, and would decrease by more than 44% between 2014 and 2030 in China. The young generation, particularly for those aged under 40 years, showed a faster down trend.
Conclusions: Based on the analysis, incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030, but the burden of liver cancer is still serious in China, especially in rural and western areas. Most cases of liver cancer in China can be prevented through vaccination and more prevention efforts should be focused on high risk groups.

Keywords: Liver cancer burden; temporal trends; prediction; cancer registry; China